It is too early to say whether the Malaysia Airlines plane shot down in separatist-controlled eastern Ukraine was a terrorist attack, a leading terrorism expert has said, arguing it was more likely a "military event gone wrong" involving one of the groups fighting in the Ukrainian separatist conflict.
The director of the Global Terrorism Research Centre at Monash University, professor Gary Bouma, told Guardian Australia the confirmation that 27 Australians had died was “terrible”, but it most likely was not an act of terrorism comparable to Australians being caught up in attacks such as the Bali bombings in 2002 or the 11 September attacks in New York and Washington in 2001.
At this early stage “it’s more likely to be a military event gone wrong, where they’ve claimed to have shot down a transport plane”.
“It wasn’t what they thought it was, that means it isn’t terrorism,” Bouma said.
“If it’s a terrorist attack it’s totally unclear who the targets are. This isn’t making sense as a terror attack. There’s no way the conflict in the Ukraine is related to Malaysia. Unfortunately, like it or not, terrorist attacks make sense.”
Tony Abbott has called the incident an “unspeakable crime” and “not something that can just be dismissed as a tragic accident”.
Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko has called the downing of the airliner an act of terrorism.
Ukraine’s interior minister Anton Gerashchenko told the Wall Street Journal pro-Russia rebels had set up a ground-to-missile battery near the Russian border by the town of Snizhne.
“They clearly thought that it was a military transport plane that they were shooting at,” he said. “They were the ones who did this.”
But Bouma said that “whether that’s a terrorist attack and who’s responsible for it is not clear at this stage, I would be careful calling it a terrorist attack”.
The downing of the Boeing 777 is another reminder to Australians that they are not immune from global tensions. Australia has suffered the third-highest casualties in this tragedy, after the Dutch with 154 presumed dead. There were 43 Malaysians on board.
The deadliest terrorism attack affecting Australia was the Bali bombing on 12 October 2002, in the tourist area of Kuta. Of the 202 killed, 88 were Australians, mostly holidaymakers, at the Paddy’s Irish Bar and the nearby Sari Club. Thirty-eight Indonesians were killed.
Australians were a target of that attack, with suggestions that it was retaliation for Canberra’s support of the US “war on terror” and its role in supporting Timor-Leste independence.
The Jakarta bombings on 17 July 2009 at the JW Marriott and Ritz-Carlton hotels killed seven people, including three Australians.
The 11 September 2001 attacks killed almost 3,000 people, including 10 Australians.
The second Bali bombings on 1 October 2005 killed 20 people, including 15 Indonesians and four Australians.
In September 2004 the Australian embassy in Jakarta was the target of a car bomb that killed nine Indonesian nationals.
Terrorism researcher Shandon Harris-Hogan estimated in 2012 that more than 120 Australian civilians had been killed by terrorists overseas since 2000, but emphasised that the greatest threat now appeared to be from homegrown terrorists.
The attorney general, George Brandis, told parliament this week the threat of a terrorist attack on Australian soil was “real and undiminished”. Asio has estimated that about 150 Australians have had substantial involvement in the conflict in Syria.