Is this India's answer to Tesla?

[billubakra]

Hi Guys,

So, this startup is making a ton of noise
Ather Energy

With tons of cash coming in from various sources
Sachin Bansal rides a bet on electric bike startup Ather Energy

What Tesla is doing with cars, they are doing it with 2-wheelers. Any south Indian driven their vehicles?

Thanks

 

[omega44-xt]

Considering the number of two-wheelers in India, it can become large in the future. But it's still early, the company touted to be the next Tesla, aka Faraday Future, ran out of cash pretty fast last year & is in a bad spot right now. There are other EV startups in the US but none of them have proper vehicles for sale. Only time will tell how Aether will do as that price is pretty high in Indian standards. A $2000 scooter in California might become successful, not so much in India.

India also needs to improve its energy generation. Currently its barely enough with power cuts still happening in places, even in big cities. Also, the % of renewable energy should increase, I agree that government is surely working towards that. Currently, EVs in India aren't exactly eco-friendly as the emissions are being shifted from urban to rural areas (where coal power plants are) & EVs produce a lot of harmful components for the environment compared to traditional IC engine vehicles during production. Still, it's a good start.

 

[whitestar_999]

India also needs to improve its energy generation. Currently its barely enough with power cuts still happening in places, even in big cities.

Actually lot of people don't know this but India already achieved surplus power generation capacity.It is the distribution/transmission network(& poor financial health of state electricity boards) which is the cause for these power cuts.Basically there is enough power but not enough money to buy it(in case of broke state electricity boards) or there is not enough capacity to distribute it(aka inadequate power lines/transformers resulting in overload).

 

[billubakra]

Considering the number of two-wheelers in India, it can become large in the future. But it's still early, the company touted to be the next Tesla, aka Faraday Future, ran out of cash pretty fast last year & is in a bad spot right now. There are other EV startups in the US but none of them have proper vehicles for sale. Only time will tell how Aether will do as that price is pretty high in Indian standards. A $2000 scooter in California might become successful, not so much in India.

India also needs to improve its energy generation. Currently its barely enough with power cuts still happening in places, even in big cities. Also, the % of renewable energy should increase, I agree that government is surely working towards that. Currently, EVs in India aren't exactly eco-friendly as the emissions are being shifted from urban to rural areas (where coal power plants are) & EVs produce a lot of harmful components for the environment compared to traditional IC engine vehicles during production. Still, it's a good start.

In the future I see just two major players in the EV market Tesla vs everyone else. Have you seen their cars? Even VW is years behind. Their prototype Audi EV is nothing in front of a Tesla. Sure Tesla is all messed up and few days back its shares plunged by 42% but be it Elon or whosoever runs Tesla will be the king in the coming years.
Coming to Ather and their pricing, I bought a 70k Plusar in 2008. It was considered a huge investment back then. Nowadays people are buying activa and its competitors for around 60-65k as it has that touchscreen feature and what not. I think once Ather goes into mass production the price will come down.

Actually lot of people don't know this but India already achieved surplus power generation capacity.It is the distribution/transmission network(& poor financial health of state electricity boards) which is the cause for these power cuts.Basically there is enough power but not enough money to buy it(in case of broke state electricity boards) or there is not enough capacity to distribute it(aka inadequate power lines/transformers resulting in overload).

Source?

Someone tag gollum and others from Bangalore. Let's get some ground report about this.

 

[whitestar_999]

Source?

How India became power surplus country in three years: Piyush Goyal lists out achievements

India to be power surplus in 2018-19: Central Electricity Authority

A power sector expert said, "India is a power surplus state because its installed generation capacity is around 344 GW against the peak demand of not more than 170 GW so far. The deficit in supply is primarily because of discoms' reluctance to buy power. Either they don't have funds to buy power or they are afraid of under-recovery of power bills."
The other reason for power deficit is limitation of transmission and distribution networks particularly in remote and hilly areas, the expert opined.

Facing power cuts? Here is why it's happening in your area

Power cuts currently are due to spurt in spot prices of electricity which make the power supply non-affordable after a threshold rate. Additionally, discoms are not financially sound enough to procure power available in the market. In fact, this is mostly due to the domestic segment of power value chain arising out of poor network, high losses or finance issues.

 

[billubakra]

1 more thing that I forgot to mention, currently ev's used for commercial purposes will attract some incentives+the gst slab is 12%. For petrol and diesel one's it is 28%. The government is planning to incentivize the personal ev's also. They will have too in the near future to shift people to ev's. All companies have geared up for electric cars but they are starting from scratch but Tesla has a 10+ years old experience just like Google's Waymo.

 

[billubakra]

How India became power surplus country in three years: Piyush Goyal lists out achievements

India to be power surplus in 2018-19: Central Electricity Authority


Facing power cuts? Here is why it's happening in your area

I thought electricity boards look after dams, solar, coal etc. the sources of electricity themselves. Whom are they buying from? Private players or Centre? I don't trust those government reports. If there is enough power surplus then centre, if the state is not willing to do, should look after or release a plan to replace old transfomers etc.

 

[Desmond]

AFAIK, a company called Reva already manufactured electric vehicles in India for a while now. They have now been acquired by Mahindra.

Mahindra Electric - Wikipedia

One of the HODs in my college has had one such car since back in 2007.

 

[omega44-xt]

I thought electricity boards look after dams, solar, coal etc. the sources of electricity themselves. Whom are they buying from? Private players or Centre? I don't trust those government reports. If there is enough power surplus then centre, if the state is not willing to do, should look after or release a plan to replace old transfomers etc.

Private players & PSUs. Not everything is govt owned. You can partially blame govt paperwork & laziness of employees in that as well. Good to know at least India is generating enough, now only if the transmission is fixed in the next few years, it would be great.

 

[whitestar_999]

I thought electricity boards look after dams, solar, coal etc. the sources of electricity themselves. Whom are they buying from? Private players or Centre? I don't trust those government reports. If there is enough power surplus then centre, if the state is not willing to do, should look after or release a plan to replace old transfomers etc.

Electricity boards looks only after distribution & transmission now.You have psu power generation like NTPC power plants & pvt players power generation like reliance/adani from which state electricity boards buy power to distribute.Of course richer states have the advantage(hence the overall better power situation in South compared to North). It also means financial health of electricity boards matters so in states where 30-40% of electricity is lost because of theft(like UP,Bihar etc where board does not get any payment for this consumed electricity) & where govt provides a lot of free power,those electricity boards are broke & can't buy enough power(case in UP,Bihar etc) or even if they can buy enough power for certain weeks/month(by taking loans etc) then again because of inadequate infrastructure it can not be supplied without interruptions(e.g.20-30 years old colonies with old wiring & single transformer but everybody now installing split ACs in their homes).

 

[billubakra]

AFAIK, a company called Reva already manufactured electric vehicles in India for a while now. They have now been acquired by Mahindra.

Mahindra Electric - Wikipedia

One of the HODs in my college has had one such car since back in 2007.

There are many players like that but their vehicles are nothing when compared to a Tesla or an Ather product. OTA updates, dedicated forums man that is the future.

 

[Desmond]

Whoever is the player in this market, I think we seriously need electric cars and need to start phasing out conventional cars. Pollution is too much these days.

Govt. should give tax incentives to electric cars owners to help people transition.

 

[billubakra]

Whoever is the player in this market, I think we seriously need electric cars and need to start phasing out conventional cars. Pollution is too much these days.

Govt. should give tax incentives to electric cars owners to help people transition.

The government has said that from 2030 only ev's will be allowed on roads. Aftermath- good for nothing maruti will stop diesel cars production from 2020. VW, Hyundai etc will launch their gen 1 ev's asap.
Tax benefits are only being given to commercial ev's as of now.
Tesla wanted to come to India last year but sarkaar told them to buy atleast 40% parts locally under the make in India initiative+there was no assurance in supporting the network of their superchargers so they said no.

 

[omega44-xt]

The government has said that from 2030 only ev's will be allowed on roads. Aftermath- good for nothing maruti will stop diesel cars production from 2020. VW, Hyundai etc will launch their gen 1 ev's asap.
Tax benefits are only being given to commercial ev's as of now.
Tesla wanted to come to India last year but sarkaar told them to buy atleast 40% parts locally under the make in India initiative+there was no assurance in supporting the network of their superchargers so they said no.

Tesla can't bring their current portfolio to India & expect it to sell well. Even a $35k Model 3 will cost 25 lakhs even if directly converted, which is a lot of money in India. But in US, a lot of people own $50k pick up trucks & they can easily buy a Model 3. So I don't have much hopes from them being interested in India.

I hope Maruti, Tata, Mahindra, etc can bring some decent EVs for 10 lakhs, that might pique the interest of some people. Given the current scenario, buying EVs aren't that sensible in India, mainly due to charging. Many people live in flats instead of having own independent house like US, so it will be a pain to install a charger in such places.

 

[Desmond]

Charger can be installed in the flat's parking space. But yes, in the beginning it will be a pain to charge at least until this becomes commonplace.

 

[billubakra]

Tesla can't bring their current portfolio to India & expect it to sell well. Even a $35k Model 3 will cost 25 lakhs even if directly converted, which is a lot of money in India. But in US, a lot of people own $50k pick up trucks & they can easily buy a Model 3. So I don't have much hopes from them being interested in India.

I hope Maruti, Tata, Mahindra, etc can bring some decent EVs for 10 lakhs, that might pique the interest of some people. Given the current scenario, buying EVs aren't that sensible in India, mainly due to charging. Many people live in flats instead of having own independent house like US, so it will be a pain to install a charger in such places.

For price reduction what Tesla will do is cut down their software, radar features(full radar is only allowed for vvip's and Ambani), eliminate self driving etc. This will bring down the cost to atleast 6-7 lacs. A good ev car in 15 lac bracket will sell like hotcakes.
This is what an example of what full radar can do but it is not allowed in passenger cars

*www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&e...=ifoFOXRBiHM&usg=AOvVaw1-YtkILGpKsLVKTRddbvuq

Charger can be installed in the flat's parking space. But yes, in the beginning it will be a pain to charge at least until this becomes commonplace.

1 supercharger for each ev in flat's parking space will not be possible.

 

[omega44-xt]

For price reduction what Tesla will do is cut down their software, radar features(full radar is only allowed for vvip's and Ambani), eliminate self driving etc. This will bring down the cost to atleast 6-7 lacs. A good ev car in 15 lac bracket will sell like hotcakes.
This is what an example of what full radar can do but it is not allowed in passenger cars

*www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj0msb68cziAhWWXSsKHeD_APMQwqsBMAZ6BAgJEBA&url=*www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifoFOXRBiHM&usg=AOvVaw1-YtkILGpKsLVKTRddbvuq


1 supercharger for each ev in flat's parking space will not be possible.

The $35k Model 3 doesn't exist now, the base model is $40k & that too w/o a full autopilot computer (that's a $6000 upgrade). So cutting down costs further significantly is not possible for Model 3. Nissan Leaf & Hyundai Ioniq starts at $30k here. Let's see when those enter India (Leaf is expected soon though).

There's a federal tax credit of $7-8k here in the US for EVs which influences the decision of people buying it as that amount is reduced from their income tax. Considering ~2% of Indians pay income tax, they can be given similar benefits to boost the sales of EV. Say Swift gets an EV powertrain & that upgrade is worth 2 lakhs, even if the government decides to give 1-1.5 lakh tax benefit over 3 years, people might be interested in getting EVs.

 

[billubakra]

The $35k Model 3 doesn't exist now, the base model is $40k & that too w/o a full autopilot computer (that's a $6000 upgrade). So cutting down costs further significantly is not possible for Model 3. Nissan Leaf & Hyundai Ioniq starts at $30k here. Let's see when those enter India (Leaf is expected soon though).

There's a federal tax credit of $7-8k here in the US for EVs which influences the decision of people buying it as that amount is reduced from their income tax. Considering ~2% of Indians pay income tax, they can be given similar benefits to boost the sales of EV. Say Swift gets an EV powertrain & that upgrade is worth 2 lakhs, even if the government decides to give 1-1.5 lakh tax benefit over 3 years, people might be interested in getting EVs.

$40k Tesla has all radar features+all those one's which are in those videos. Cut those down and voila there's a Tesla with less cost. But in the end it is just me and you speculating. Just a matter of time before Tesla enters India now.
About your second paragraph besides tax benefits, government should allow taking depreciation value of a vehicle's life in a single itr only just like they do in the US.

 

[omega44-xt]

$40k Tesla has all radar features+all those one's which are in those videos. Cut those down and voila there's a Tesla with less cost. But in the end it is just me and you speculating. Just a matter of time before Tesla enters India now.
About your second paragraph besides tax benefits, government should allow taking depreciation value of a vehicle's life in a single itr only just like they do in the US.

Design Your Model 3 | Tesla
^^Check that

I know we are just speculating, but most cars sold in India are under 10lakhs on road or about 7-8 lakhs ex-showroom:
Highest selling cars of India in 2018

It's about ~$30k for the US:
The 10 best-selling vehicles in the United States in 2018 were mostly trucks and SUVs

Tesla already has its hands full with upcoming SUV & semi (big truck). I don't think they have plans for something cheaper than Model 3 anytime soon. Maybe they will bring Model 3 as it is just for namesake & might think about a cheaper model after 3-4 years (Model Y is coming soon & refresh for Model S & X are expected as well, so they literally have their plates full). IMO its better for Tesla to not waste time on India.

I've no idea about the last line.

 

[billubakra]

Design Your Model 3 | Tesla
^^Check that

I know we are just speculating, but most cars sold in India are under 10lakhs on road or about 7-8 lakhs ex-showroom:
Highest selling cars of India in 2018

It's about ~$30k for the US:
The 10 best-selling vehicles in the United States in 2018 were mostly trucks and SUVs

Tesla already has its hands full with upcoming SUV & semi (big truck). I don't think they have plans for something cheaper than Model 3 anytime soon. Maybe they will bring Model 3 as it is just for namesake & might think about a cheaper model after 3-4 years (Model Y is coming soon & refresh for Model S & X are expected as well, so they literally have their plates full). IMO its better for Tesla to not waste time on India.

I've no idea about the last line.

A seven lac car has 28% gst included. The price of the same is 5.46L. If gst on spares is also decreased then price will be decreased more. For cars above 15L(ex-showroom price) the price includes 28% gst+20% gst compensation cess. Only few businesses can claim gst and gst compensation cess. Few days back a chairman(basically owner) of a gramin bank with branch in few cities in my state bought a 40l car in the name of bank. But he was allowed to claim gst as his reason was that the car will be used to give service to customers i.e. for opening of accounts etc etc lol

The trend is changing dear, middle class families are opting for the higher end models of verna, creta etc. which are around 15 l on road price.

Only India can give the much needed cash to Tesla right now.

About the last line, it is something related to tax benefits. In a simple language, say you earn a tax benefit of $200 every year for say around 5 years under depreciation rules. As per new irs rules, one can claim full $1000 benefit in a single year only. We need rules like that here in India.