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*news.softpedia.com/images//newsrsz/It-039-s-Time-to-Face-the-Ugly-Truth-SP3-or-No-SP3-the-Clock-Is-Ticking-for-Windows-XP-2.pngAs 2008 has kicked in, it's now time to face the ugly truth. The clock is ticking for Windows XP. And while Microsoft may view this as a natural stage in the evolution of a product introduced all the way in 2001, a healthy proportion of end-users and businesses will fail to see eye to eye with the company on this one. In this context, Windows Vista, the latest Windows client dropped to businesses in November 2006, and to the general consumers in January 2007, generated an unexpected result, managing to wind up XP's clock.
Vista in 2007
Even with Vista generally available on the market, XP did not give the feeling that it was struggling to survive. In fact, it was the other way around, as Microsoft focused its efforts and resources into catalyzing the erosion of XP's market share. But, what should have been an all out market share feast ended up as nothing more than Windows Vista scraping for crumbs of audience. Microsoft's official position throughout 2007 was that Vista was the fastest selling Windows platform ever to come out of Redmond.
This perspective was reinstated by Mike Nash, corporate vice president, Windows Product Management, on September 27th: "with more than 60 million licenses sold as of this summer, Windows Vista is on track to be the fastest-selling operating system in Microsoft’s history." The Redmond company claimed that Vista had sold over 20 million licenses in its first month on the market, passing the 40 million mark by the first 100 days, and the 60 million milestone by mid 2007. The last statistics made available to the public, dating back to the end of October, pointed to over 88 million Vista copies sold worldwide.
On top of these, Microsoft also touted having in excess of 42 million Vista licenses going to Software Assurance customers via volume licensing. But in the end, the company counts all the Vista copies it ships to its channel partners worldwide, from original equipment manufacturers to retail suppliers, and not necessarily the licenses sold to end users. Even before Vista had hit the shelves at the end of January 2007, Microsoft pointed at twice the sale rate of Windows XP, as a forecast for Vista's performance in the operating system's first year on the market, but ended up felling short.
At the end of 2007, according to statistics provided by Net Applications, Vista enjoyed a market share of 10.48% - a percentage roughly synonymous with 100+ million sold copies. And while in just a single year Vista's install base has passed the combined audience of Mac OS X and all the Linux distributions, its performance is still perceived with nuances of failure. And at fault is Windows XP with its roots firmly dug in for the past six years.
eXPired?
Microsoft did invite the comparison between Vista and XP, but it failed to come up with an 'eXPired' operating system and with its latest Windows platform as the Wow answers for all users, be them home or corporate. Starting in January 2007, the Redmond company was forced to make a series of moves designed to keep Windows XP alive and to prolong its life as much as possible.
On January 24th, 2007, six days before Vista's commercial release, Microsoft informed of "the addition of an Extended Support phase for the Windows XP Home Edition and Windows XP Media Center Edition operating systems, providing consumers with an additional phase of support. With the addition of Extended Support, the support life cycle for Windows XP Home Edition and Windows XP Media Center Edition will include a total of five years of Mainstream Support (until April 2009) and five years of Extended Support, matching the support policy provided for Windows XP Professional."
And then, at the end of September 2007, Nash explained the company's decision to push back the direct OEM and Retail License Availability end date for XP to mid 2008. "We’re responding to feedback we have gotten from our OEM partners that some customers will benefit by extending availability of Windows XP to June 30, 2008 instead of the planned date of Jan. 30, 2008. Also, since some of the systems that ship in emerging markets don’t meet the requirements for Windows Vista, we will be extending availability of Windows XP Starter Edition to June 30, 2010. This will allow our OEM partners who sell PCs in emerging markets more opportunity to offer genuine Windows licenses. Windows XP Starter Edition is tailored to local markets, in local languages, and is compatible with a wide range of Windows-based applications and devices", he stated.
Well, the Clock Is Ticking, but It Will Tick for Quite a Long Time
The time is running on Windows XP. Even as Microsoft is gearing up to make available the third service pack for XP, it has emphasized the fact that the refresh will be the last major update served to the operating system. "While Windows Vista and 2007 Office Servers are getting their first service pack updates, Windows XP is getting its last. Windows XP SP3 will be a rollup that includes all previously released updates for Windows XP, including security updates, out-of-band releases and hotfixes. It contains a small number of new updates, but should not significantly change the Windows XP experience", the company revealed in an email sent to TechNet subscribers.
As of June 30th, 2008, Windows XP will no longer be available pre-loaded on machines from original equipment manufactures or from retail outlets. Starting with the summer of this year, and ending sometime in 2010, when Windows 7 is planned, end-users will have access only to Windows Vista. Sure, XP will survive with System Builders until early 2009, and until mid 2010 with the Starter edition, but sales of the Windows operating system connected with white-box PCs are only a fraction of the Windows client business.
According to Microsoft, the Windows client business is a "segment [which] includes sales and marketing expenses for the Windows client operating system and product development efforts for the Windows platform. Client revenue growth is correlated with the growth of purchases of personal computers from OEMs that pre-install versions of Windows operating systems as the OEM channel accounts for over 80% of total Client revenue."
With PC sales worldwide estimated between 260 and 300 million in 2008, and with the vast majority of those machines shipping with Vista, even in the context's of XP's prolonged availability, Microsoft is looking at a market explosion for its latest Windows client in the coming year. The release of Vista SP1 in the first quarter of 2008 will only catalyze growth for the operating system.
While available side by side with XP throughout 2007, Vista has still managed to climb to 10.48% of the operating system market, while its predecessor has dropped in a single year from 85.30% to just 76.91%. The trajectory in the past year is illustrative of the tendency for Windows users to either switch to Vista or stick with XP, but not to convert in mass to alternative operating systems such as Mac OS X or Linux.
Umbilical Cords Measuring Contest
At the same time, statistics indicate that, although in very small numbers, Windows users are still running Windows 95, Windows ME, Windows 98 and Windows 2000. This even if Microsoft has cut the lifeline for older operating systems, disallowing support. Windows XP, with SP3 installed, will only enjoy Mainstream Support until April 14th, 2009, with Extended Support scheduled to be retired on April 8th, 2014.
Starting with 2009, and until 2014, XP users will be able to enjoy paid support (per-incident, per hour, and others); security update support, product-specific information that is available by using the online Microsoft Knowledge Base, and product-specific information that is available by using the Support site at Microsoft Help and Support to find answers to technical questions; but not non-security hotfix support, no-charge incident support, warranty claims or design changes and feature requests.
If Microsoft fails to accelerate the adoption rate of Vista, which will probably not be the case as the market will become increasingly favorable to the operating system this year, XP will still be the most used platform worldwide by the time that Windows 7 hits. But at the current uptake pace of Vista, by 2010, the operating system will barely make it past 30% of the market with XP still at over 40%.
Painting the Bigger Picture
In the end, it's not all about support lifecycles and marketing, not by a long shot. With Service Pack 1, Vista will enter its first stage of evolution and, as the operating system will continue to mature, courtesy of the updates pushed via Windows Update, so will the ecosystem orbiting around it. This will lead to better support and compatibility, to increased reliability and to boosted performance. But more importantly, it will focus upcoming hardware devices and software products on Vista. OEMs such as HP and Dell have already been pushing Vista exclusive machines, offering no drivers for Windows XP.
This tendency will accentuate in the future. One of the reasons why XP is so popular today is the vast number of hardware items and programs that are designed for the platform. But, the focus will shift to Vista, as its market share will grow. While it appears that Vista vs. XP rests with the end users and with the Redmond company's partners and Windows developers, the fact of the matter is that Microsoft can actually dictate and influence this complex equation. Have you heard of the Microsoft Developer & Platform Evangelism Group? The role of this group is precisely to point key developers, IT professionals and partners in a direction synonymous with Microsoft's strategy, this means nothing more than XP fading to the background and Vista taking center stage.
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